An Overview of Mobile Markets in the Pacific Islands

Mobile technology is a playing a pivotal role in the economic and technological development of the
Pacific Islands, enabling access to life enhancing services in areas such as health and education,  as well as creating more jobs and increasing tax revenues.

Currently the Pacific Islands region has a  modest mobile subscriber growth,  subscriber penetration rates remain well below regional and global developed market averages.

According to The GSMA Mobile Economy Pacific Islands 2019 report, although 38% of the population subscribed to a mobile service as at the end of 2018, this trails the average for least developed countries (44%). Within the region, there is significant variation in the development of local mobile markets; subscriber penetration rates range from a high of 84% in Fiji to a low of just 11% in the Marshall Islands. Papua New Guinea is by some way the most populous country in the region; with a subscriber penetration rate of 30%, it is home to the majority of the
unconnected population across the region.

Operators are investing to improve LTE network coverage and speeds. 4G connections are set to account for more than half of total connections by 2023, doubling the figure from the end of 2018.
The shift to mobile broadband and 4G also reflects the increasing rates of smartphone adoption. From just 30% of connections at the end of 2018, this is forecast to more than double to 65% by 2025, helped by declines in smartphone prices and the emergence of new, low-cost smartphone vendors.
Faster network speeds and more advanced devices are key to bringing populations online. At the end of 2018, mobile internet penetration in the Pacific Islands was the lowest of any region in the world, at just 18% of the population. This figure will grow over the coming years, but by 2025 only a third
of the population will have mobile internet access. This will leave more than 9 million people across the region offline, limiting their ability to participate in the digital economy and take advantage of the opportunities it can offer

Most islands still lack properly developed innovation ecosystems due to the limited size of the individual markets, the complexity of developing sound infrastructure between the archipelagos, and
the significant leverage of larger regional hubs in Asia Pacific.

Within the region, subscriber penetration rates range from a high of 84% in Fiji to a low of just 11% in the Marshall Islands. Papua New Guinea is by some way the most populous country in the region. Its current subscriber penetration rate of 30% means it is home to the majority of the unconnected
population across the region. Connecting these still unconnected populations remains the key challenge for operators and other industry stakeholders in the region, including governments and regulators.

The region is seeing an ongoing shift to mobile broadband connections (3G and 4G capable
devices), which by the end of 2018 already account for more than half the connections base. 4G alone is set to account for over half of total connections by 2023 – more than doubling the figure from the end of 2018.

There are now 34 LTE networks in service across the region. Most recently, Tuvalu Telecom launched on the island of Tuvalu in 2018. Operators are continuing to invest in expanding their existing networks, in terms of coverage and network speeds.

Fiji hosts a relatively sophisticated communications infrastructure with the highest mobile and Internet penetration in the Pacific islands, according to Research & Markets.

It is the leading market to watch in terms of both 4G LTE and 5G development in this region. In 2019 the Fijian mobile operators continue to heavily invest in 4G LTE and LTE-A technologies, and these networks now account for the largest share of mobile connections. Concentrating on the more highly populated areas, the operators are preparing for the next growth area of mobile data. For example, Vodafone Fiji announced in 2018 its plans to invest FJD207 million ($98.6 million) in the upgrade of its mobile networks, with the goal of raising ‘4G+’ coverage to more than 90% of the population. Around 100 existing 3G cell sites will be converted to LTE-A technology, while a further 244 new sites will be developed to increase 4G coverage and network speeds. Similarly, Digicel announced a $50 million plan to improve LTE-A coverage for key population areas in Fiji.

Both Digicel Fiji and Vodafone Fiji also have 5G in mind and are preparing the networks to be pre-5G ready. Fiji presents a challenging geographic environment for infrastructure developments generally, due to its population being spread across more than 100 islands. However, the majority of Fijians live on the two main islands of Viti Levu and Vanua Levu.

Poland: Gearing up for 5G

Poland have 4 GSM-based network providers:

Play (by P4)
Orange (formerly IDEA)
Plus (by Polkomtel, merged with Aero2)
T-Mobile (formerly ERA)

GSM up to EDGE is on 900 and 1800 MHz like all over Europe. 3G/UMTS covers all of the country on 900MHz up to HSPA+ and 2100 MHz up to DC-HSPA+ speed available in most of the country. 4G/LTE has been rolled out on 800, 900, 1800, 2100, 2600 MHz frequency (= bands 1, 3, 7, 8, 20, 38) frequency.

The mobile market in recent years has been characterised by the rapid extension of LTE networks and the development of mobile data services based on newly released and re-farmed spectrum. The regulator is preparing to release additional spectrum in several bands for 5G, though delays to the process mean that 700MHz spectrum is unlikely to be available before mid-2022.

Where coverage is concerned T-Mobile and Orange are best sharing 11,000 transmitters in the country, followed by Plus/Aero2 with 9,500 in 2017. Play is in 4th position with only 7,200 antennas, but compensates this lack by roaming agreements with the other 3 providers, that are only available on some tariffs and coming to an end soon.

Mobile penetration in Poland is above the European average, standing at 137% by mid-2019. This reflects the continuing popularity among consumers to keep two or more SIM cards, which has distorted the real mobile penetration rate. Nevertheless, the distortion has been addressed on two fronts: by network operators being encouraged to disconnect dormant SIM cards, and by legislation, effective from February 2017, which obliges subscribers of prepaid services to register their details. These forces have resulted in a significant readjustment in the number of subscribers in the market.

Poland has still not launched a fully functional 5G communications network, but more and more Polish cities are planned to have 5G tests and, next year, one of them may implement the network for commercial use. Operating on a government-granted test license on the 3.4 - 3.6GHz band, the test network has been set up between nine sites in the Ochota and Powiśle districts of the Polish capital.




Play, owned by P4, was the smallest of the 4 network operators in Poland. But due to their aggressive marketing, Play finally moved to the 1st position in 2017/8 as far the number of subscribers is concerned, having over 15 million subscribers as of March 31, 2019.

By the half of 2018 it had covered 97.4% of the population with 3G/UMTS on 900 and 2100 MHz. LTE is called according to Play "4G LTE" and it's operating on 800, 1800, 2100 and 2600 MHz. Play Coverage Map (click on "internet". Here it shows "4G/LTE" which is UMTS and LTE combined! The bright purple area is 3G/HSPA+, only the dark purple 4G/LTE.) covering 98% of population. "4G LTE Ultra" is an area that on LTE Advanced is available (maximal speed: 300 Mbit/s) covering 86.8%. From 1st March Play also starts with "5G READY" (=LTE-Advanced with QAM256, MIMO 4x4, phase synchonization and Cloud Air technology), which you can get over 900 Mbps in compatible devices , but coverage is very limited - 18%. Operator want to be first to offer commercial 5G network on 2100 MHz frequency in Tri-Citi in the half of 2020.

Currently, Play has the best network quality in Poland - it builds modern network and improving it to get faster speeds. Where you can find Play, it usually offers good speeds, however coverage is very limited.

Play has been authorised to begin 5G trials in the 2100MHz band. The Office of Electronic Communications (Urzad Komunikacji Elektronicznej, UKE) is allowing the operator to carry out 5G tests in the Tri-City area of Gdansk, Gdynia and Sopot, with a view to progressing to a commercial launch early next year.




The number 2 operator Orange Polska operates on 2G and 3G, 4G/LTE (on 800, 1800, 2100, 2600 MHz): Orange has good coverage in Poland. LTE is open for prepaid and covers already 99.85% of population in 2018 with speeds up to 600 Mbps. Orange used to be the market leader with the best coverage and speeds until 2017 when it was overtaken by Play.

Orange has network sharing with T-Mobile called NetWorks! - Both operators are building a common cellular network (UMTS 900 MHz and LTE 1800 MHz) and subscribers can use both networks base stations (that is not equal to domestic roaming, but basically Orange and T-Mobile subscribers are sharing the same antennas).

Orange had 13.43 million mobile subscribers at the end of June 2019, plus a further 1.53 million M2M connections on its network.

Orange Polska has made more than 100 5G smartphones and routers available for invited customers to test and experience 5G download speeds of up to 900Mbps. The operator expects to roll-out commercial 5G in Poland in 2020 - 2021, following the acquisition of the necessary 5G spectrum.


T-Mobile in Poland has the best coverage in Poland on 2G, 3G and 4G/LTE. 4G/LTE is open for prepaid and covers 99.7% of population in 2017 already. On the majority of 4G base stations LTE Advanced is available to compatible devices at no extra cost. LTE-A in a T-Mobile can offer up to 300 Mbit/s of download speed.

Before 2011 it used to be a second operator in Poland, but after rebranding to "T-Mobile.pl" (from "Era") and during period with disappointing offers compared to other operators, it started losing customers. Currently it has least market share.

It has the best coverage and quality of network in Poland (after Play). T-Mobile has a union with Orange Polska to improve infrastructure called NetWorks! - T-Mobile and Orange are building cellular network together (UMTS 900 MHz and LTE 1800 MHz) that subscribers can use both networks base stations (that is not equal to domestic roaming, but basically T-Mobile and Orange subscribers are using the same antennas).




Plus (formerly Plus GSM) is the brand name of Poland's mobile phone network operator Polkomtel. The company is entirely owned by Spartan Capital Holdings sp. z o.o. Plus uses LTE base stations from Aero2, because its own Plus LTE coverage have been limited (mostly up to 3G/HSPA+)

For 4G/LTE these frequencies from Plus and partners are employed together:
Plus: 900 MHz (B8), 1800 MHz (B3), 2100 MHz (B1) and 2600 MHz (B7)
Aero2: 900 MHz (B8), 1800 MHz (B3), 2600 MHz (B7) and TDD-LTE 2600 MHz (B38)

From 2019 Plus/Aero2 will also add TDD-LTE 2600 MHz (B38) to boost coverage and speed. Summing up, Plus has a good coverage throughout the country on 2G and 3G while their 4G/LTE network already covers 99% right now. 4G/LTE (called LTE PLUS) is available on prepaid cards with speeds up to 150 Mbps. LTE-Advanced (called LTE PLUS ADVANCED) is available for 73% of Polish population, is open for prepaid with speeds up to 300 Mbps. Plus is the local Vodafone partner.

Currently Plus has the slowest 4G network compared with other operators. The operator hasn't modernized its network by adding frequencies to base stations. Their network is still based on Aero2's 1800 and 900 MHz predominantly. Additionally, many MVNOs run on Plus  with very big data packages at quite low price. The result is that network tends to be overcrowded and you have slow speeds (about 0.5 - 10 Mbps usually).

From January 2019 Plus has lost its license of 4G/LTE on band 20 (800 MHz). If you have a device, which doesn't work on band 8 (900 MHz) in 4G instead, you'll be downgraded to 2G/3G network in rural areas.

Morocco: Emerging 5G Markets of Africa

Morocco’s mobile market is one of the more mature in the region, with a penetration rate of about 125%. All three mobile network operators offer fixed-line or fixed-wireless services and have developed mobile data services based on the extensive reach of LTE infrastructure. Growth in mobile data traffic is supported by the popular use of smartphones, which account for about 80% of all mobile phones in use.

The mobile operators are the main providers of internet services, accounting for the great majority of all internet connections. The issuing of LTE licences in 2015 included conditions to ensure that services covered at least 65% of the population by 2020, while the promotion of broadband accessibility nationally is also supported by the National Broadband Plan through to 2022 and by the Maroc Digital 2020 strategy. The extensive deployment of mobile broadband infrastructure will further consolidate the dominance of mobile players in the broadband sector in coming years.

Morocco has three network operators: Maroc Telecom (a.k.a. Itissalat Al-Maghrib, IAM),
Orange (rebranded from Méditel in December 2016) and Inwi.

2G is on 900 MHz only, 3G on 2100 MHz in plain UMTS standard (up to 14.4 Mbps). 4G/LTE has started in 2015 on all providers in the cities. Licenses on 800, 1800 and 2600 MHz were given out. 4G is open to prepaid, where available. Maroc Telecom is market leader with the best coverage in the country, followed by Orange and Inwi, which is still sufficient when you stick to towns.



Maroc Telecom, a.k.a. IAM is the biggest mobile provider, mostly owned by UAE-based Etisalat, with the best coverage . In 2015 they have started with 4G/LTE with speeds up to 225 Mbps in major towns that is available for prepaid without surcharges.

A live 5G demonstration was organised at Maroc Telecom headquarters  in partnership with Ericsson  in Rabat earlier this year, showcasing the capabilities of the next-generation mobile technology.

The demonstration showcased several 5G use cases using a standalone end-to-end 5G system from Ericsson, including a prototype radio, baseband, and prototype UE device. The demo delivered 5G throughput, achieving speeds up to 25.8 Gbps, which is the highest speed reached in Africa to date.


Orange is the second provider in the country and mostly owned by Orange in France (formerly called France Télécom). That's why it was decided to rebrand it from the original brand of Méditel to Orange starting in December 2016. Coverage is not as good as Maroc Telecom but still reasonable. 3G is available in most towns, 4G/LTE has been started in 2015 in about 8 towns so far.




Inwi is the smallest provider in Morocco but still reasonable, if you stick to the towns mainly. 4G/LTE has started in 2015 in 26 cities.

Inwi is also conducting 5G trials in collaboration with Huawei and is installing new equipment on its radio to expand its backhaul fibre backbone network.


Related Posts:

• Maroc Telecom's African Presence
• Africa: The Race For No. 2 Operator

Orange: Leading the way in Cameroon

Orange are creeping up on MTN as the number one mobile operator in Cameroon. Currently with 7.9 million subscribers (MTN has 9 million) they impressively cover 49.3% population with 4G, while  82% is covered by 2G and 65% by 3G.

According to GSMA Mobile Economy 2019 Report, 3G will play a big role in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2025 with a significant number of devices still on 2G. Having a good 2G & 3G coverage is important but a good 4G coverage brings in new ARPU due to data usage and mobile internet subscribers.




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• Cameroon: Issues and Development
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Grameenphone Bangladesh Continues to Expand it's 2G & 3G Network

Grameenphone's annual report had some interesting details about the network footprint expansion, especially the 2G and 3G network. Here are the details:

Bangladesh Mobile Sector At A Glance

Bangladesh has made significant progress in growing its economy and improving the lives of its people in the last few years. The country is now working to reach upper-middle-income country status by 2021- the year that marks the 50th anniversary of its independence. It has been able to maintain a sustained economic growth rate of 7.86% in the last fiscal year.

Backed by this impressive economic growth, the Telecom sector of the country has made remarkable progress throughout 2018. At the end of 2018, there were 88 million unique mobile subscribers in Bangladesh, making it the fifth largest mobile market in Asia Pacific and ninth largest in the world. With subscribers owning on average 1.8 SIM cards, there were a total of 159 million connections in 2018, representing connection penetration of 94.5%. The Data market has also seen significant growth of around 15% and the total mobile internet connections stood at 87 million. With 45.3% unique mobile internet subscriber, there is still potential for further growth in data services. 2018 was an eventful year for the Telecom Industry in Bangladesh. A lot of initiatives have been taken and implemented by the Government and from the Industry side as well. The Government was very keen to introduce 4G service in Bangladesh and 4G licences were offered in the beginning of 2018. All the Mobile operators launched 4G services in the 1st Quarter of 2018. At the end of the year, the 4G subscriber base reached 5.5 million, with 3G and 2G subscriber base at 61 million and 89 million respectively. 


The Government released more spectrum through the auction process in the 900, 1800 and 2100 MHz band and the long expected Technology Neutrality was sold to operators across the spectrum band upon payment of a one-time fee. Mobile Number Portability (MNP) was another agenda of Government that has been implemented in the 4th quarter. The country has sent its own satellite into orbit. A test trial of 5G network was also run in 2018.

Grameenphone

Grameenphone recorded a healthy growth of its subscriber base and correspondingly of reported usage. The Company acquired 7.4 million new subscribers, an 11.3% YoY growth. Adding 5.9 million internet subscribers to its network, Grameenphone closed the year with 37.1 million internet subscribers, which is 19.0% higher than that of the previous year. 51.0% of our total subscribers are using internet services on the fastest internet network in the country.

One of the most important foundations upon which we deliver services to our customers is our network. In 2018, Grameenphone made significant investment in new 4G technology, spectrum acquisition and network capacity building. The Company invested BDT 34.0 billion to rollout more than five thousand 4G LTE sites, to expand 2G and 3G coverage, to effect capacity enhancement, as well as to build higher IT readiness. In total the Company has invested BDT 347.4 billion in Bangladesh since inception. 

As one of the largest contributors, Grameenphone contributed BDT 84.2 billion to the national exchequer in 2018 which represents about 63.4% of Grameenphone’s total revenue for the year. By the end of 2018, the total contribution to the state by Grameenphone since inception reached BDT 669.5 billion.

With continued network modernisation, we reached over 5,000 4G sites at the end of the year, covering 54.6% of our sub-base under 4G. 20% of our daily traffic is now carried over the 4G network. In the quarter we rolled out 429 new 4G, 497 new 3G and 404 new 2G sites. At the end of the year we reached 14,521 2G sites and 14,687 3G sites.

In 2018, we launched our high-speed 4G LTE network. Data consumption has almost doubled since 2017 and 20%+ of our data volume is now being carried on the 4G network. 7 million unique users latched onto 4G LTE, which has an average speed of ~10 Mbps.

Grameenphone acquired new spectrum, a 4G licence and Tech neutrality on existing spectra. It was the first to launch 10MHz LTE immediately after licence was awarded by the regulator. By the end of 2018, Grameenphone rolled out ~ 5,009 LTE sites all across the country which has led the rapid growth in data consumption.

In 2018, Grameenphone reached the 72 million subscribers milestone, a true testament of the trust the people of Bangladesh have in the Company. Grameenphone was the first operator to launch a 4G network in 2018. This is a result of Grameenphone’s determination to serve its customers in the best possible way, ushering in new avenues for empowering societies by building and strengthening the country’s communication and connectivity with the rest of the world. Despite the fiercely competitive market, Grameenphone continued to contribute to its iconic status in the Bangladesh communications industry.

Overall, the year was marked by significant changes in the industry. Among these, Grameenphone closed 2018 with 3.4% year-on-year revenue growth over 2017. Strong drive in all segments of the business recorded consolidated revenue of BDT 132.8 billion for 2018. In the same timeframe, Grameenphone earned a yearly average Daily Subscription & Traffic Revenue of BDT 336.9 million, which is 7.0% up from that of 2017. The Company ended the year with 72.7 million subscribers, which represents a 11.3% sub base growth from last year.


In the framework of significant investment in new 4G LTE technology, spectrum acquisition and network capacity enhancement, data revenue continued its strong pace during the year to record 21.0% YoY growth. Rapid rollout of 4G data networks, fast proliferating mobile applications along with affordable smartphones in the market enabled internet to enter the customers’ everyday lives in newer ways. With more than five thousand LTE sites, Grameenphone received the recognition of the fastest internet network in the country by Ookla, the global leader in internet testing and ended the year with 37.1 million internet subscribers. 2018 also resonates Grameenphone’s passion for driving its vision towards inclusive empowerment of communities by leading the growth of technological services that are relevant and affordable to communities.

During the recent world cup, Grameenphone subscribers were able to watch Bangladesh matches on their phone. Here is an advert promoting it. We will soon find out what impact this made on the subscriber growth.



Related Posts:

• Bangladesh: 4G Race

Mobile Landscape in Nicaragua

Nicaragua's mobile communications sector is highly concentrated. The market is currently lead by Movistar Nicaragua and Claro Nicaragua, with a total combined market share of 99.6% as of year-end 2018; Chinese operator Xinwei, which entered the market in 2016 under the Cooltel brand, has yet to achieve expected growth and closed 2018 with only about 25,000 subscribers.

Millicom just announced it has closed the acquisition of Movistar owned by Telefonía Celular de Nicaragua, S.A., the number one mobile operator in the country, and will be adding it to the its brand TIGO Nicaragua. 

This is the first transaction to close since Millicom announced in February an agreement to acquire three subsidiaries of Telefónica in Central America in Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua.

Telefonía Celular de Nicaragua, S.A. adds approximately 4 million mobile customers to TIGO with a 4G network that is accessible to 51% of the population in Nicaragua. 

The deal accelerates the execution of Millicom’s fixed-mobile convergence strategy, it helps consolidate the company’s leadership position in Central America, and it diversifies and balances the geographic footprint of the company in its mission to build digital highways and opportunities therefore connecting more users and developing communities throughout the region.

The agreement was initially struck in February to buy three Central American units from Telefonica for $1.7 billion. Deals for Telefonica’s operations in Panama and Costa Rica are still undergoing regulatory review.

Millicom says the newly acquired assets complement its operations in Central America, and that it will now be able to cross-sell mobile services to its existing cable customers and cable services to Telefónica’s mobile customers.

All of the three Central American countries have among the highest disposable income levels in the region, but penetration rates for digital services are relatively low.

Millicom operates in Bolivia, Colombia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Paraguay under the Tigo brand, serving more than 50 million mobile telephone customers and 3.3 million households.

The chart above gives a good summary of the Spectrum in use in Nicaragua. At present 3G and 4G is in use but the coverage needs improvement in the future. 

Related Posts:

• Millicom targets Leadership Position in Central America with acquisition of Telefónica Subsidiaries

The potential that is Pakistan

Its been an eventful five years for Pakistan’s mobile industry. The South Asian country has seen a dramatic increase in mobile broadband penetration and the introduction of 3G/4G services has impacted the lives of millions. 

In December 2017, 3G/4G subscribers in Pakistan numbered 47 Million.  According to a recent report issued by Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA), at the end of December 2018, there were 62 million 3G/4G Subscribers in Pakistan with penetration rate of 29.55%. That is a very significant increase indeed.

However in a country so large and populous, their mobile broadband market is still considered to be at an early stage of development with penetration well below most other Asian countries. Strong growth is predicted over the next five years to 2023, driven by further adoption of 4G and eventually 5G services. The uptake of 3G/4G has been quite impressive that has given the government and the mobile operators the confidence to look forward to 5G.

Presently four mobile operators provide services to the country. Here are there most recent market shares/figures. 

Source

Jazz (created by the merger of Mobilink and Warid) is the current market leader with the largest number of subscribers. In 2016/7 they merged with Warid and adopted Warid's 4G network and offer their 4G/LTE to all of their customers as a single brand. In 2017 they received an own license for 4G on 1800 MHz (band 3). Their tagline is “Dunya ko Bataa Do” (tell the world) and their partnering with travel vlogger Eva Zu Beck to showcase their coverage and the culture of Pakistan has been a popular advertising strategy. 

Norwegian owned Telenor is the third largest operator in the country. They cover more than 80% of Pakistan's population in urban and rural areas with a network of over 11,000 cell sites of which 80% are 3G and 70% are 4G enabled. 

4G/LTE was started in August 2016 in Islamabad, Karachi, Lahore, Multan, Peshawar and Sawaton on 850 MHz (band 5) and has spread to other major towns. Telenor was the first network to enable VoLTE and officially launch 4.5G (LTE Advanced) in Pakistan. It has done so by aggregating two LTE bands, FDD-LTE Band 5 (850 MHz) and FDD-LTE Band 3 (1800 MHz), a portion of which has been re-farmed for LTE, it was previously used on the 2G (GPRS/EDGE) network. Telenor's new LTE-A network will initially be available in Karachi, Lahore, Rawalpindi and Islamabad.

Zong in Pakistan is owned by China Mobile Pakistan. It has a limited network on 3G in many towns but was the first to launch  4G/LTE on 1800 MHz (band 3) in the centers of 7 major cites in 2014. It presently has over 9 million 4G subscribers, more than any other network.  
According to Zong when it comes to 4G coverage, subscribers, internet speed and innovation, no other network can reach the heights of Pakistan’s No.1 data network. They more than 10,000 4G towers with plans in place to launch 5,000 more 4G sites in the next 3 years.

Ufone owned by Etisalat is the fourth operator in the country. It has 3G network coverage in over 9,000 locations and across all major highways of Pakistan. There is no 4G/LTE yet.
A recent Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA) survey found Ufone takes 5.73 seconds to connect a call, the fastest among all networks in the country.




2018 was a great year for Pakistan’s Technology industry with substantial growth and development in IT Sector and for 3G/4G penetration. Supported by growing tech-savvy population, increasing businesses and rising internet penetration, Pakistan is destined to become one of the fastest growing economy by 2030 and has the potential to be one of the  leading digital economies. There is a lot of promise in the IT sector of Pakistan with young population turning to computers and other digital technologies creating a huge market for local and foreign investors.

SK Telecom Mobile Network History and 5G

SK Telecom has a long history of being world's first but that may not necessarily hold true for 5G. There have been so many claims of "first in the world" that it is even difficult to keep track of who has been launching what kind of 5G.

The picture above summarizes SK Telecom's plan for 5G launch, early to mid 2019. The presentation, delivered to ITU is available here.


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Malaysia: Challenges of 4G

It has been more than 5 years since 4G LTE was officially rolled out in Malaysia. Today, there are six 4G LTE operators in the country and the cost of data is so much more affordable than before. The mobile operators are – Maxis, Celcom Axiata, DiGi, Webe, U Mobile and Yes. In May 2017 Celcom Axiata carried out what is claimed to be Malaysia’s first 5G trial. The test was also said to have demonstrated futuristic 5G use cases, such as robotic control, connected environment, virtual reality, Internet of Things (IoT) applications and 4K video streaming.

Although 4G technology is available 74.88% of the time to Malaysians, its speed leaves much to be desired. According to a report by OpenSignal, a company that specialises in wireless coverage mapping, the 4G speed in the country is only 14.83Mbps.

With that, OpenSignal ranks Malaysia as one of the lowest 20 countries in the list which was led by Singapore at 44.31 Mbps while India being ranked last due its 6.07 Mbps download speed.

However,  LTE availability in Malaysia was more promising. The report pointed out that the LTE connectivity in the country can be accessed 74.88% of the time throughout Q4 2017. While it is better than Algeria which occupy the bottom of the list due its 40.94% rating, Malaysia is nowhere near South Korea whereby users were able to achieve LTE connection 97.49% of the time.

According Open Signal test results regarding the highest 4G/3G download speeds and the lowest latency for both 4G and 3G among operators: Maxis comes out on top overall. 

Coming in at second place is Yes. When it comes to 4G, Yes records an incredibly high 93.18% availability followed by Maxis at 80.45%. OpenSignal notes that 4G availability isn’t a representation of geographic or population coverage, but rather how often its users are connected to a 4G network. It is worth mentioning that Yes itself runs on a pure 4G network so if it goes out of coverage, there’s no 3G or 2G network to fall back on. Yes also records the highest overall average download speed of 19.03Mbps and it isn’t surprising since its users are connected only on 4G, while other telcos have samples measured on 3G.

If we look at the rest, Celcom (16.15Mbps) takes 3rd place followed by Digi (11.77Mbps) on 4th and U Mobile (7.2Mbps) at 5th place for 4G downloads. Webe (or now known as UniFi) is ranked the lowest at 6.76Mbps. When it comes to 3G, 2nd place goes to Celcom (2.9Mbps) followed by U Mobile (2.78Mbps) and Digi (2.58Mbps).

You can read the full OpenSignal report here.

India: Disruption and Competition

I have previously written about the disruption caused by Reliance Jio since its explosive entry into the Indian mobile market. This operator launched their 4G service in September 2016 and continues to go from strength to strength as it adds subscribers and reported a second consecutive quarterly profit and earnings of INR7.23 billion ($108 million) for its full financial year 2017-2018.

Its mobile subscriber base rose by 83 million year-on-year to take its total to 187 million at end-March 2018. ARPU dropped 11 per cent sequentially to INR137 in the January-March period. Average data consumption per user per month hit 9.7GB, which the company said was the highest in India and one of the highest in the world. Average video consumption per user per month was 13.8 hours.

Data from GSMA Intelligence show Jio’s market share rose to 14 per cent at end-March 2018, from 9 per cent a year earlier. Mukesh Ambani, chairman of Jio’s parent Reliance Industries, said:

 “A full-blown social, mobile and digital revolution is underway across the world, and I am glad that India is not being left behind in any way. Everyone at Jio is today proud to have played a pivotal role in transforming the digital landscape of this country and empowering millions of Indians with all the leading digital tools and skills.”

He emphasized the strong financial results in a competitive market environment demonstrates the robustness of their business model.

According to Open Signal Jio continued to dominate the 4G availability metric as testers were able to access an LTE signal 96.4% of the time. Such a score is exceptional, reflecting Jio's commitment to build out a 4G-only network without 3G mobile data services to fall back on. What's more, Jio's impressive LTE reach is only improving, though incrementally. The last India report in October, measured Jio's 4G availability at 95.6%.

However the success of Jio has come at the expense of others especially the ill-fated Reliance Communications (RCom) owned by the junior Ambani brother Anil,  which is heading towards a complete exit from India’s mobile sector, ending its 16-year stay in the market. The operator is folding, with a debt load standing at roughly $7 billion.

After striking a deal to sell wireless assets to Reliance Jio in 2017, which was given the go-ahead by Indian courts within the past fortnight, the debt-ridden operator was expected to remain in the market with the creation of a “new Reliance Communications”, using its remaining fixed-line and wholesale assets to serve enterprise clients.

But, just as the company looks set to complete its sale to Jio and put its B2B plans in motion, reports suggest Ambani junior is now looking to sell RCom’s remaining enterprise and wholesale assets.

Ironically by acquiring RCom’s infrastructure and assets, which in effect saved RCom from insolvency, Jio is expected to step up the competition even further with market leader Bharti Airtel and the proposed Vodafone India, Idea Cellular joint entity.

Speaking to Mobile World Live, Satyajit Sinha, research analyst IoT and mobility at Counterpoint Research, described Jio’s entry into the Indian market as a “death knell for RCom”, but noted problems started long before Anil’s older brother Mukesh stormed the Indian market with reduced data and voice offers through Jio. According to Sinha:

“RCom’s main business model was dependent upon the CDMA technology well suited for voice services, but not so for advanced data services compared to the competition which were on the path to 4G. A lack of flexibility meant the transition from CDMA to GSM was not as smooth and was a setback as Reliance continued to lose subscribers to the likes of Vodafone, Idea and Airtel.”

Finally, Sinha noted a “lack of strategic network evolution vision in addition to a lack of scale has driven RCom to this stage”.

RCom’s situation could have been very different, had Anil been allowed to proceed with a merger with South Africa’s MTN almost nine years ago. However, Senior Ambani had blocked the deal. And nine years later, he has been on hand to put the final nail in the coffin of his brother’s mobile business, as part of a wider quest to seize market domination. Family rivalry in action. 

Meanwhile, market leader Bharti Airtel reported a profit drop of 77.8 per cent in its fiscal Q4 2017, as the company continued to feel the effects of the Jio disruption/ increased competition in India which has led to an intense price war.

In an earnings statement for the quarter ending 31 March 2018, Gopal Vittal, MD and CEO of India and South Asia suggested poor performance was due to: 

 “below cost, artificially suppressed pricing. Industry revenues were further adversely impacted this quarter due to the reduction in international termination rates.” 

The operator reported net income of INR830 million ($12.5 million), a sharp fall from INR3.73 billion in the same quarter year prior. Revenue dropped 10.5 per cent to INR196.34 billion from INR219.35 billion, which was attributed to the termination rate cuts.

Airtel’s profit drop is its largest in 15 years, Despite the decline, the operator’s mobile subscriber base grew 4.9 per cent to more than 304 million, contributing to an overall customer base of more than 413 million.

According to Open Signal Airtel demonstrated by far the biggest improvement in 4G reach, boosting its 4G availability by more than 9 percentage points to 66.8% in their measurements. But Airtel was also the furthest behind in this metric six months ago, so its recent surge in availability didn't propel it ahead of any of its competitors in the rankings. 

Meanwhile Idea, an operator with a 17 per cent market share by subscribers, suffered a net loss of INR41.4 billion ($620 million) in the year to end-March, compared with an INR4.04 billion loss in fiscal 2017. Total revenue dropped 20.5 per cent year-on-year to INR283 billion.

Total mobile subscribers increased by 5 million year-on-year to 194.5 million at end-March.

Capex for the fiscal year hit INR70 billion, in line with its guidance. The operator added 45,000 3G and 4G sites to take the total to 155,000 at end-March.

The company is to due merge with Vodafone India and is in the final leg of regulatory approvals, expected to be completed in the first half of this year. The operators are already sharing about 49,000 mobile sites and plan to share fibre and points-of-presence in 220 cities.The merger, may well create a new market leader in India, however it is being speculated around 5,000 staff could be made redundant over the coming months as the companies prepare to reduce costs and streamline operations. Idea has about 11,000 employees: Vodafone India around 10,000. 

Finally State-run telco Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited (BSNL) is expected to soon get 5 Mhz slot in the 2100 Mhz band for rolling out fourth-generation or 4G services that may make India’s telecom landscape more competitive with rivals such as Reliance Jio, Bharti Airtel, Vodafone India and Idea Cellular already pitting against each other.BSNL chairman Anupam Shrivastava told ETTelecom.

“By next month, 5 Mhz in the 2100 Mhz band will come across 21 licensed service areas except for Rajasthan where we aim to launch 4G services on the 800 Mhz band radio waves,” 

The state-driven telco is currently offering third-generation (3G) technology-based services on the 2100 Mhz band spectrum which it wants to further use optimally for 4G-based voice and data services. According to Shrivastava: 

“By rolling out 4G with an additional five units in the 2100 Mhz band can also help in utilization of unused spectrum offering contiguity,” 

Therefore they can offer 2G, 3G and 4G services concurrently.

Once more the disruptive foray of Reliance Jio in September 2016, on the back of freebies has led incumbents such as market-leader Bharti Airtel, Vodafone India and Idea Cellular to drastically cut per Gigabyte (GB) data cost or as low as Rs 5 per GB with virtually free voice calls across prepaid and postpaid platforms today.

So its seems market competition will get even fiercer. 

Afghanistan: 4G picking up pace

The Afghan telecommunications market and infrastructure has suffered from extensive damage due to conflict as well as lack of investment and neglect. However, in the years following the U.S.-led invasion, the telecommunications sector has emerged as a leading component of the country’s economy. 

There exist four main mobile operators in the country, Afghan Wireless Communications Company (AWCC) was re-launched in 2002 (incorrectly named as Airtel Afghanistan in table below) and a second mobile operator, Roshan, began offering services the following year. AWCC and Roshan were awarded duopoly exclusivity over the market for three years from 2003 to 2006. A third operator, Areeba, entered the market in 2006 and was subsequently renamed MTN Afghanistan after being acquired by the South African mobile group MTN in 2007. A fourth mobile operator, Etisalat, entered the market in 2007. As of 2014, Roshan had a one-third market share, MTN had a one-fourth market share, and AWCC and Etisalat each had shares of approximately one-fifth.

Source

The number of mobile-cellular subscriptions in Afghanistan from 2002 to 2016. In 2016, the number of mobile subscriptions in Afghanistan stood at 21.6 million. According to Abdul Razaq Vahidi, the Minister of Communication and Information Technology in Afghanistan; 

"In Afghanistan, in 2002, there was no infrastructure. We almost started from a zero base, with 20,000 fixed lines in Kabul city and some major cities. But now, we have 80% mobile penetration and 3 million people out of the 30 million population are using the Internet. "

The mobile sector has been boosted by the absence of effective fixed-line alternatives.

Key developments recently: 

• AWCC launched Afghanistan’s first LTE system with coverage of Kabul.
• Afghanistan is making good progress on the roll-out of a nationwide optical fibre backbone.
• Afghanistan’s mobile market has experienced reasonably strong growth.
• The mobile broadband market is being driven by a rising level of mobile subscribers and strong competition.

Source

The operator with the largest number of subscribers Roshan is an Afghanistan success story, serving as a catalyst for economic growth and actively contributing to the country’s long-term development. Since its inception in 2003, Roshan has invested approximately $700 million in Afghanistan and is the country’s single largest investor and taxpayer, contributing approximately five percent of the Afghan government's overall domestic revenue. Roshan directly employs more than 700 people, 20 percent of whom are women, and provides indirect employment to more than 35,000 people. The company announced their 4G network would be launched imminently in May 2017. No further information can be found as yet. 

Roshan is deeply committed to Afghanistan’s reconstruction and development. The Aga Khan Fund for Economic Development (AKFED), part of the Aga Khan Development Network (AKDN), is a major shareholder of Roshan and promotes private initiatives and building economically sound enterprises in the developing world. Also owned in part by Monaco Telecom International (MTI) and Telia, Roshan brings international expertise to the country and is committed to the highest standards of network quality and coverage for the people of Afghanistan.

Meanwhile in May 2017, Afghan Wireless launched the first 4G LTE service in Afghanistan. That service is now live in Kabul, and the company is extending 4G LTE to the entire country. 

The company has invested more than $400,000,000 to build Afghanistan's largest, fastest and most reliable communications network. AWCC's network provides its 4G/LTE, 3G and 2G subscribers with data access capacity of at least 400 Mega Bytes per second—the fastest and best speed available in Afghanistan.

Amin Ramin, the Managing Director of Afghan Wireless states:

"We at Afghan Wireless are proud to be the first mobile communications company to provide 4G/LTE service to the people of Afghanistan,The launch of AWCC's 4G/LTE Network in Kabul—and soon, throughout the nation—is the latest example of AWCC's determination to provide Afghans with the world's best communications services.  Afghan Wireless is a company built by Afghans. And we're honored to serve Afghans, and support our country's technological development, economic and social progress."

 Some interesting Tweet-observations about Afghanistan:

Met @Javidfaisal, a senior spokesperson in the Afghan government.

Interestingly I found that the active social media presence of the youthful popluation in Afghanistan is very similar to Iran.

4g internet is spreading there, he told us

— Ali Noorani ヌーラーニー (@ali_noorani_teh) March 7, 2018

Turns out high speed mobile internet is reasonably priced in Afghanistan ($11/m for 10Gb) like Iran; unlike Japan where 10Gb/month mbobile data costs at least $60!

— Ali Noorani ヌーラーニー (@ali_noorani_teh) March 7, 2018

Any chance he could explain why I could get a better 3G / 4G mobile signal in the mountains of Afghanistan than in and around Old Trafford?

— Stuart Burkhill 🐝 (@stuartburkhill7) March 12, 2018